DeskToTrades: should you switch to the trades?
You are established, mid-career, and earning real money. This runs the honest version of the trade-switch math: the apprenticeship income trough, your year-by-year cash flow against staying put, and the year you break even.
Deepest hole
cumulative cash, by year
Break-even
on cash wages vs staying put
Journeyman base
after apprentice years (East Bay to SF)
The line items break-even leaves out
- Licensing and exam fees (year 1, counted in break-even)
- Benefits vs your current coverage (per year, not in break-even) - union package to - health from day one, retirement ramps (year 1 near )
- You modeled a -month wait to get into the apprenticeship (still earning your salary), which defers the switch and deepens the trough
- If you go out on your own around year (scenario range, never in break-even)
| Year | Stay | Switch (cash) | Costs | Delta | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Break-even and the trough ride cash wages plus one-time licensing only. Benefits are shown as a line item and the business-ownership range is a scenario, so neither masks the real cash trough. Union rates are prevailing-wage figures; actual paid hours vary. Rates verified July 2026 from state prevailing-wage sources and BLS OEWS; see data/_meta.json for the per-number audit trail.